The study aims to develop and test methodological approaches for empirically assessing regional economic dynamics in the context of disrupted supply chains for industrial imports. This problem has gained particular relevance in recent years due to intensified sanctions, the withdrawal of foreign companies, and the reconfiguration of global trade flows. These factors have significantly affected Russian regions, especially those deeply integrated into international supply chains. Using a multi-factor regression model based on quarterly data from 2010 to 2021, the analysis evaluates the sensitivity of the gross regional product (GRP) of the Republic of Tatarstan to the development parameters of its most import-dependent sectors. The methodological framework combines economic and mathematical modeling with systematization and classification of regional economic risks that arise from restricted foreign supplies. In this context, the study identifies critical groups of imported goods, aligns them with sectoral activities under the Russian Classification of Economic Activities (OKVED), and applies cluster and scenario analysis to assess their impact on regional growth. The results show that a slowdown of 1% in petroleum and rubber product sectors leads to a cumulative 1.4% decline in GRP growth, while the motor vehicle and chemical industries contribute an additional 0.6% decrease. These estimates confirm that the structure of import dependence determines the vulnerability of regional economic growth to sanctions. The findings contribute to the development of adaptive policy measures for ensuring sustainable regional development and highlight the practical value of quantitative approaches for diagnosing risks in regional economies under external shocks.
