2025 Volume 10 Issue 1 Supplementary
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Analysis of Emerging Financial Markets: The Role of Macroeconomic Variables (Empirical Evidence from Six Selected Countries)


Abstract

This study empirically investigates the influence of macroeconomic variables on the returns of financial markets in six emerging economies during the period from 2018 to 2024. Utilizing monthly panel data and applying statistical techniques such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and fixed effects modeling, the study analyzes the relationships between GDP growth, interest rates, inflation, and foreign direct investment flows with stock market returns. The Hausman test results indicate that the fixed effects model is more appropriate than the random effects model for this analysis. The findings reveal that economic growth and interest rates exert a positive and significant impact on stock market returns, whereas foreign direct investment has a negative effect. The effects of inflation and the market-to-GDP ratio are found to be statistically insignificant. Given that these macroeconomic factors directly affect economic dynamics and indirectly influence labor market mobility, the results can serve as a foundation for evaluating the effects of macroeconomic policies on employment. Emphasizing the link between financial market development and macroeconomic indicators, this study provides policy recommendations to foster sustainable economic growth and enhance the employment environment.


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