2020 Volume 5 Issue 2 Supplementary
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THE EFFECT OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN IRAN, A BAYESIAN ECONOMETRIC APPROACH


Maryam SORATI, Babak EBRAHIMI
Abstract

The advent of severe fluctuations in energy price and environmental issues has made different countries in the world try to control energy consumption but the fear of the negative effect of controlling energy on economic growth has forced them to be more cautious in this case. Due to this, there are various studies about causal investigation between economic growth and energy consumption, followed by different results. Iran has rich and vast resources. The existence of huge underground reservoirs and potential energy, causes Iran to have a proper opportunity for using such energy resources. This study has sought to investigate the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Iran during 1965-2009 through Bayesian model averaging. The result of all three model fittings showed that economic growth of Iran, which has been assessed using Gross Domestic Production (GDP) growth in this study, is affected by energy consumption growth, human and labor factors, population growth and other factors such as import and export growth, inflation and the difference between the official and unofficial exchange rates. As a result, the research hypotheses, based on the effect of energy consumption and physical and human asset on economic growth was confirmed. 


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