2018 Volume 3 Issue 2 Supplementary
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IRAN'S RIAL IS IN A DEATH SPIRAL AND WHAT REALLY TAKES IRAN AWAY FROM THIS CRISIS? PASS THROUGH EFFECT MODEL


Mina SHAFIEIZADEH1*, Rahman SAADAT2, Komail TAYEBI3
Abstract

The Iranian Rial has lost about a third of its value over the last year and now Iran's Rial is in a death spiral, burnishing claims that the economy is stumbling. This paper, according to the Ayatollah Khamenei's statement, removes US dollar in economic transactions. And also in order to achieve Resistive economy, since most of our economic transactions are oil transactions, this paper need to choose a vehicle currency other than the dollar and enter into our transactions. As shown in this paper, can be seen that most of Iran's oil transactions are done with China; for the reasons that will be discussed later, between the currency of Iran and China, Yuan is the best currency to choose as a vehicle currency in oil trades. This paper concluded that: the pass-through effects of the Yuan’s appreciations on prices of China imports and that of Japan differ substantially. While pass-through effects on China import prices are relatively weak, about 23% in the short run and less than 47% in the long run, the Yuan is the best Selection vehicle currency for Iran's oil contracts. So To stop the Rial’s death spiral immediately, Iran should do what this paper do. Iran should install a vehicle currency like China Yuan. Instead of anchoring the system with the US dollar, which no longer exists, Iran should anchor the Rial to the Yuan currency that has less pass through effect. With such a currency board system, Iran would still have its Rial. But, instead of being a junk currency, it would be as good as gold.


Issue 2 Volume 10 - 2025