2018 Volume 3 Issue 2 Supplementary
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IDENTIFYING AND ANALYZING THE EFFECTIVE DRIVER FORCES ON THE FUTURE OF THE BANKING SYSTEM OF IRAN IN THE 20-YEAR HORIZON USING FUTURES STUDIES APPROACH; STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS AND CROSS-EFFECT ANALYSIS


Nasser HASANI
Abstract

Pre-empt identification and prioritization of the strategic components of businesses and organizations not only captures the attention of managers to the key success factors and effective issues, but also plays a significant role in the use of limited resources to reach the basic goals. For this reason, in order to avoid the shock and threatening astonishments (surprises), as well as taking advantage of the opportunities, organizations and businesses struggle to explore, analyze and interpret all the meaningful environmental stimuli through continuous observation of far and near surroundings in addition to understanding the logic behind (governing) the change. Firstly, trends and mega trends affecting the future of the banking industry have been identified in five categories by distributing the questionnaire among a sample of experts of the banking system (n = 108). Then, through the formation of expert panels consisting of experts in the banking industry, 30 key identified variables were analyzed using futures studies approaches via Micmac software. Finally, variables with the highest level of influence and dependency have been explored and consequently variables of the diversity, quality and content of banking services, changing the businesses structure of banks, virtual banking development and…. have been identified. Therefore, according to the defined objectives and nature of the study, this is an applied developmental research. In addition, the present study is a descriptive research from the survey branch in terms of data collection. From the perspective of futures studies, it is also classified as quantitative-qualitative (semi-quantitative) and exploratory research.


Issue 2 Volume 11 - 2026