Sanctions and exchange rate fluctuations wield substantial influence within national economies, particularly in countries like Iran, reliant on robust oil export platforms. Understanding the consequential impacts of these dynamics on foreign investment and oil exports is pivotal for devising appropriate economic and political strategies.
This study employs the dynamic system method and Vensim software to scrutinize the ramifications of international sanctions and exchange rate variations on Iran's foreign investment and oil exports. Leveraging dynamic system modeling enables a comprehensive exploration of intricate cause-and-effect relationships among diverse factors, allowing for in-depth analyses of their temporal dynamics.
Utilizing time-based data pertaining to sanctions and exchange rate fluctuations, our research constructs Vensim models to delineate the intricate relationships between sanctions, exchange rates, foreign investment, and Iran's oil exports. Subsequently, employing these models, we conduct dynamic analyses and diverse simulations, interpreting the outcomes.
The findings reveal profound effects on oil exports triggered by shifts in sanctions; stringent sanctions precipitate a drastic decline in exports, while their alleviation leads to marked increases. Furthermore, fluctuations in exchange rates significantly impact the influx of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Iran, highlighting the pivotal role of exchange rates in trade and FDI flows.
