The prediction of the results of introducing a new product into the market, is one of the vital issues facing the organization's executives before investing in marketing activities. The impact of various factors on the market as well as the specific characteristics of the market, depending on the region and its product type, has made it difficult to predict market behavior. In Iran retailers are effective players especially in FMCG market. The purpose of this paper is to suggest a model to the marketing managers to predict the result of their new product lunch to market considering their special market attributes in Iran. Agent-based modeling, as a tool for modeling complicated systems, can be helpful for simulating real-world conditions. In present paper, agent-based modeling is used to model the market for agents, including manufacturers, retailers and consumers with particular profit functions. The introduction over a three-year period of a new soft drink in the Iranian market is considered as a case study. The results show that paying attention to the needs of retailers and consumers simultaneously, and changing policies based on long-term profitability, create success in the new product diffusion process. The analysis of a competitive environment and the role of retailers in market and also repeat purchase behavior of consumers is instructive. These can provide valuable pointers for marketing managers to customize the model to their special market and product.
