Forecasting Unemployment Rate in Saudi Labor Market In 2030: The Story of Downward Resistance

ABSTRACT

In the light of globalization theory, protecting the interest of domestic residents especially the livelihood has always been challenging task for the government. Keeping into mind this scenario, this research work is aimed at (1) forecasting the future of employment status measured in terms of unemployment rate of Saudi workers by 2030 (2) to understand the relationship between unemployment rate, Gross Domestic Products (GDP) and population growth; and 3) to justify the reasons of downward resistance of unemployment rate in Saudi Labour market. These were completed by using appropriate models and techniques with the aid of statistical packages viz. SPSS 20 and AMOS. The data employed in this study were collected from the annual reports of Saudi Arabia Monetary Authority (SAMA), for the last 20 years (i.e. 1999 - 2019). The results of this study show that the unemployment rate will be 10.99 % in 2030 which is approximately 3 % higher as announced in Saudi 2030 vision. Another interesting finding is that unemployment rate has no significant correlation with GDP and population growth and the combined influence of both GDP and population growth is only 4.2% (squared multiple correlations) which is insignificant.

Keywords: Saudi Labour Market , Saudi 2030 Vision , Unemployment , the KSA , Forecasting Unemployment Rate , unemployment rate.

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